Into a new World Order?
This publication summarises the interventions and debates of the 5th Lisbon Conference, held on October 13-14, 2022, at the Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation. Major events are accelerating global transformations in the political, security, economic, social, technological, environmental spheres. Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine are two of such events, that add to others which might reverse huge achievements such as getting out millions from extreme poverty or jeopardizing climate agreements. At the dawn of the third decade of the 21st century, global and regional power competition for hegemony is becoming harsher, multilateralism is eroding, tensions and multipolar initiatives flourish, and a still diffuse new reality is on the making.
Opening
“Diplomacy must win over war, it is essential that the role of international organisations is enhanced and that respect for international law is ensured, under the penalty of the absence of minimally consensual rules in relations between States and peoples. But beyond that it is also necessary to overcome the dramatic path of deepening universal inequalities. Without this, there will always be a trace of what feeds conflict in the universal order.” – Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Portuguese Republic
"In a few months, we witnessed a World Order that had survived the Cold War in its institutional model, and that even seemed to have found a new breath at the end of it, beginning to be quickly called into question due to a conflict that some had not seen coming and that many did not even consider possible (...)." – Francisco Seixas da Costa, Chairman of the Club of Lisbon
Opening Session
Preliminary Session | MEGATRENDS: HOW DO THEY CONDITION THE LONG-TERM FUTURE?
How might Megatrends influence the reorganization of the World Order? What was the rationale behind the choice of certain specific Megatrends and not others? Major powers’ competition is more about long or short-term trends and interests?
Megatrends
SECURITY THREATS: MIGHT THE EUROPEAN UNION BE CONSIDERED A MAJOR POWER?
The speakers analysed the role of the European Union (EU) in the new world order, against the background of the geopolitical crisis and recent events, particularly the existence of a war in the European space. In this context, a question concerns whether the EU can be considered a major power, and what kind of major power it wants and has the capacity to be, given the ongoing transformations. Tensions between the internal and external dimensions, issues of identity and sovereignty, nationalist and populist phenomena in Europe, and dependence on the United States at military and energy levels were also addressed.
Security Threats
THE HIERARCHY OF WARS: THE GOOD, THE BAD AND THE FASHIONABLE?
The speakers discussed why some wars draw much more international attention than others. Several factors contribute to a hierarchy of wars, from prejudice and cultural stereotypes to interests and geopolitics. Among the most relevant elements are geography, time and duration of a war, scale and type, the players involved, the international context in which a war occurs and its implications in the system’s stability. Conflicts and extremism in African regions, and particularly external interventions and the role of European and African actors were addressed. European history has proven that in times of war it is crucial to think about peace and the ways to achieve and implement it
The hierarchy of wars: the good, the bad and the fashionable?
GLOBALISATION: TEMPORARY SLOWDOWN OR CHANGE OF COURSE?
Speakers looked at why globalisation is now being called into question, with many of the framing narratives under strain. They also debated whether globalisation is in a slowdown and adaptation phase, or whether we are witnessing a profound change of course in this process. Increasing inequalities, the intensification of the struggle for power and spheres of influence, the fragmentation of trade and global supply chains, among other factors, are contributing to the restructuring of the globalisation model. The future of globalisation will largely depend on developments in Asia-Pacific and the evolution of China's role in the global system.
Globalisation: temporary deceleration or change of course?
ENERGY AND CLIMATE EMERGENCY: HOW TO MANAGE A GORDIAN KNOT?
Speakers addressed the challenges and dilemmas of responding to the climate emergency and the energy transition. The impacts of the European scenario and the Ukraine war on these domains were particularly analysed, including the tensions between the essential priorities in the medium and long term, and the urgent needs in the short term, considering the EU external energy dependence and the need to move towards renewable energies. The ambitious targets announced at a global level contrast with the current emissions’ trend and with the absence of crisis prevention and management systems that could strengthen international cooperation.
Energy and climate emergency: how to manage a gordian knot?
INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS: MONEY GAMES, POWER GAMES?
Speakers discussed some current issues linked to international payments. Actually, the dominant position of the dollar remains, regardless of the growth of other currencies, a trend usually reinforced in times of crisis. The sanctions against Russia with the freezing of international deposits and the difficulties to use the SWIFT in international payments should motivate a reflection on their medium-term impact, namely on a possible boost to alternative systems to the dollar’s hegemony as well as the role that the stated intentions of central banks digital currencies could play in the international payments system.
International payments: money games, power games?
DIGITAL REVOLUTION AND SURVEILLANCE: BETWEEN ANGELS AND DEMONS?
Speakers discussed the impact of digital transformation, both on surveillance, privacy and data protection issues, as well as in its interlinkages with global geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. There is a gap between the level of introduction of technology in our daily lives and the ability we have, as a society, to use it safely, therefore generating vulnerabilities. The European Union has tried to lead regulation in this matter, but with poor results. Beyond the China and US blocks, what role can the European Union play in the whole in the whole technology stack for Internet 3.0?
Digital revolution and surveillance: between angels and demons?
Special Talk | A conversation between members of two generations about the challenges of global change
Special Talk: A conversation between members of two generations about global change
Closing
"What is our position and what new world are we going to have? I believe that Europe will be central to lead in this world and that cities will steer this transformation." - Carlos Moedas, Mayor of Lisbon
"The gradual weakening of the international order is underway, and this represents a profound danger for humanity, whether due to the existence of weapons of mass destruction and the increasing difficulty in managing them, or due to the growing difficulty of generating consensus around the fight against climate change (...)" - João Gomes Cravinho, Minister of Foreign Affairs